The North Carolina Rural Center released a report showing a significant shift in population trends in rural areas of the state. From 2010 to 2020, the population of the 78 rural counties grew by 106,632 people, an increase of 2.9%.
However, more than half of these counties experienced population decline during that period.
Between 2020 and 2023, North Carolina's rural population growth accelerated markedly, increasing by 98,372 people. The above is equivalent to an increase of 2.7% in just three years.
This change has been driven primarily by positive net migration. This refers to the positive difference between people moving to an area and those leaving that area, resulting in a net increase in population due to migration.
“Net migration has been the main driver of rural growth,” the report highlights.
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2015-2016, start of increase
El report emphasizes that, before the pandemic, rural areas of North Carolina were already beginning to see an increase in net migration.
From 2015 to 2016, net migration began to increase while natural change (difference between births and deaths) began to decrease.
This pattern accelerated with the pandemic, resulting in notable population growth.
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A change in population trends
Between 2010 and 2020, rural North Carolina defied national trends by growing, albeit at a slower pace than suburban and urban counties.
According to the report, “the rural population grew by 106,632 people during this period, an increase of 2.9%.”
However, more than half of rural counties lost population during this decade, with the largest declines seen in the northeast region of the state.
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Rural population in North Carolina, challenges with growth
The landscape changed radically between 2020 and 2023. During these years, rural counties grew by 98,372 people, nearly matching the growth of the previous decade in just three years.
This accelerated growth is largely attributed to positive net migration. “Remote work has allowed more people to move to rural areas, seeking a better quality of life and lower costs,” the report states.
Despite this growth, the report also warns of the challenges it brings, such as housing affordability and infrastructure sustainability.
“Population growth can be good for rural communities, but it is important to recognize that challenges and difficulties can arise with growth,” the report concludes.
Causes and consequences
The resurgence of rural North Carolina is not an isolated phenomenon, but part of a broader trend seen in several rural regions of the United States.
The adoption of remote working during the Covid-19 pandemic allowed many people to choose to live in areas with lower costs of living and a higher quality of life.
This change of residence has been a crucial factor in the increase in the rural population.
In addition to migration, other factors such as improved rural infrastructure and community development initiatives have helped make these areas more attractive to new residents.
However, the report warns that this growth brings with it significant challenges.
“Increasing demand for housing in rural areas can lead to higher prices, making housing less affordable for current residents,” the report states.
Another challenge highlighted in the report is the sustainability of rural infrastructure.
With the increase in population, there is greater pressure on public services such as water supply, sanitation and transport.
Rural communities must plan carefully to ensure they can support growth without compromising quality of life.
Report methodology
The North Carolina Rural Center report used data from the U.S. Census Bureau. It analyzed population trends from 2010 to 2023.
It used annual estimates and components of population change, such as natural change (births minus deaths) and net migration (people moving minus those leaving).
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