One million Latinos in the United States could be left without health insurance If Congress fails to extend tax credits for insurance premiums Affordable Care Act (ACA), according to estimates of Urban Institute.
The figure is part of a broader impact: Nearly 4.8 million people would lose coverage in 2026, and more than 20 million members would be lost to the ACA market. They would face significant increases in the cost of their premiums.
The projections were presented at a press conference organized by Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF) and they rely on two reports that analyze the consequences of letting the extended tax credits, in force since 2021, expire.
So far, Congress has not been able to agree on an extension, and there is no certainty about what resources will be available to families within the health system if those subsidies disappear, they emphasized.
“Latino families are facing a catastrophic health care crisis while the nation’s most profitable health companies and their executives continue to benefit from multibillion-dollar tax cuts,” said David Kass, CEO of ATF.
"Congress should extend the tax credits that make ACA insurance affordable and fund it by requiring large corporations to pay a fairer share of taxes."
A setback after years of expansion
Premium tax credits reduce the amount families must pay monthly for their health insurance in the ACA marketplace. Their expansion allowed low-income individuals to access plans with near-zero premiums and enabled higher-income households to receive subsidies for the first time.
That change was pivotal for the Latino community. According to the ATF, Latino participation in the ACA market grew by nearly 160% in the first three years of the expanded program , and in 2024 three times more Latinos They obtained health insurance through the ACA in 2020.
El report from the Urban Institute He warns that, without an extension, the rate of uninsured Latinos would increase from 24% to 28% This would reverse some of that progress. Most of those who would lose coverage would simply join the uninsured population.
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Higher premiums and fewer options
The impact is not limited to the loss of coverage. According to Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the average ACA premium would increase by around 1,000 dollars per year if tax credits are not extended.
In some cases, the increases would be much greater. A married couple of 60 years with annual incomes of $85,000 For example, it could face an increase of close to $25,000 in their annual bonus.
Furthermore, the Urban Institute's analysis shows that the net costs of insurance could more than double for many households, and that in lower-income households, premiums would go from minimal amounts to figures that are difficult to sustain.
In that scenario, millions of people would choose not to renew their coverage.
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Uncertainty without clear answers
During the conference, Pablo Willis, a public policy analyst, answered a question from Enlace Latino NC Regarding what alternatives families would have if the tax credits expired, their answer was straightforward: at the moment, there is no certainty about what might happen or what specific resources might be available within the healthcare system for those unable to afford the new costs.
Although legislative discussions are underway, the situation remains uncertain and undefined. For Latino families, this lack of clarity comes just after the ACA open enrollment period closed, at a time when many have already made decisions about their coverage for the coming year.
Reports agree that if Congress does not act, the effect will be felt starting in 2026, with increased premiums, fewer members, and a greater number of people without health insurance.
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